NASA Analyzes Super Typhoon Hagupit's Rains and Wind on Philippine Approach
Super Typhoon Hagupit is forecast to make landfall in the eastern Philippines bringing heavy rainfall, damaging winds and storm surge. NASA/JAXA's TRMM satellite and the RapidScat instrument provided rainfall and wind data, while NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite provided a visible image of the storm. In the Philippines, Hagupit is known locally as "Typhoon Ruby."
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite caught a good view of Super Typhoon Hagupit on December 4, 2014 at 1721 UTC (12:21 p.m. EST) when its sustained winds were estimated at over 145 knots (166.8 mph). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that the heaviest rainfall was just southwest of a well-defined eye.
About three hours later the International Space Station-RapidScat instrument captured data on Hagupit's winds. The RapidScat image showed sustained winds of at least 30 meters per second (67 mph/108 kph) around the eye of the storm.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite flew over Super Typhoon Hagupit on Dec. 5 at 4:22 UTC (Dec. 4 at 11:22 p.m. EDT) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite or VIIRS instrument aboard captured a visible image of the storm. The VIIRS image showed a symmetric ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding the 12-nautical-mile-wide eye.
VIIRS is a scanning radiometer that collects visible and infrared imagery and "radiometric" measurements. Basically it means that VIIRS data is used to measure cloud and aerosol properties, ocean color, sea and land surface temperature, ice motion and temperature, fires, and Earth's albedo (reflected light).
At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) on Dec. 5, Super Typhoon Hagupit's maximum sustained winds were near 130 knots (149.6 mph/241 kph), down from 150 knots (172 mph/277.8 kph). Typhoon-force winds extend out 40 nautical miles (46 miles/74 km) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 120 miles (138 miles/222 km).
Hagupit was centered near 12.1 north longitude and 128.2 east latitude, about 465 nautical miles (535 miles/861 km) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Hagupit continued moving in a west-northwesterly direction. The storm is generating very rough and dangerous seas with wave heights to 45 feet (13.7 meter).
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast, Super Typhoon Hagupit will "maintain intensity until it starts interacting with land near 24 hours (1500 UTC/10 a.m. EST on Dec. 6) then the system will begin rapidly weakening."
Many warnings are in effect throughout the Philippines. Public storm warning signal #2 is in effect in the following provinces: Visayas: Northern and eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, southern Leyte, northern Cebu and Cebu City, Bantayan Island and Camotes Island. In Luzon, signal #2 is in effect for: Albay, Sorsogon, Ticao Island and Masbate.
Public storm warning signal #1 is in effect in the Province of Visayas including: Capiz, Iloilo, Antique, Guimaras, Aklan, Negros Oriental & Occidental, rest of Cebu, Siquijor and Bohol. Signal #1 is also in effect in the Mindanao Province for Surigao del Sur, & Norte, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Sur & Norte, Dinagat Island and Camiguin Island; and in the Province of Luzon, including: Catanduanes, Camarines Norte & Sur, Burias Island and Romblon.
On Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) the latest update from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration known as PAGASA called for expected landfall on Saturday evening (Dec. 6) or Sunday morning (Dec. 7) over the Eastern Samar – Northern Samar area and it will be associated with strong winds, storm surge (up to 4 meters) and heavy-intense rainfall.
PAGASA noted:
• "Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5 – 20 mm per hour (heavy – intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.
• Ruby (Hagupit) and the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central and Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and over northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Fishermen and those using small seacraft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards."
For more information and updates visit: www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph or http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/map.php.
Hagupit is tracking generally westward along the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge (elongated area) of high pressure which is located south of Japan. Over the next three days, Hagupit is forecast to track west to west-northwest under the influence of that area of high pressure.
Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
Dec. 04, 2014 - NASA Observes Super Typhoon Hagupit; Philippines Under Warnings
On Dec. 3, typhoon Hagupit was moving from near Palau toward the Philippines when it was examined by two satellites managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency known as JAXA. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite and the Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM core satellite passed over Hagupit and gathered rainfall and cloud height data.
The TRMM satellite traveled directly over Typhoon Hagupit's eye on December 3, 2014 at 0342 UTC (Dec. 2 at 10:42 p.m. EST). The GPM (core satellite) had a good view of Hagupit later at 1041 UTC (5:41 a.m. EST) Rainfall data captured at that time with GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) instrument shows that rain was falling at a rate of over 138 mm (~5.4 inches) per hour in the western side of Hagupit's eye.
At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland the data from the Ku band on GPM's dual frequency radar instrument (DPR) was used to create a 3-D image. The Ku band radar swath showed powerful thunderstorms reaching heights of over 15.8 km (9.8 miles) in feeder bands west of Typhoon Hagupit's eye.
On Dec. 4 at 02:10 UTC, the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite took a visible image of Super Typhoon Hagupit approaching the Philippines. The MODIS image showed a clear eye surrounded by strong thunderstorms and bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the low-level center. The image also showed that the bulk of strongest thunderstorms were being pushed slightly west of the center as a result of easterly wind shear.
At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) Typhoon Hagupit's maximum sustained winds were near 150 knots (172.6 mph/ 277.8 kph). Currently, typhoon-force winds of 64 knots (74 mph/118.5 kph) or higher occur out to 55 miles of the center. Tropical Storm-force winds of 34 knots (39 mph/63 kph) or higher occur within 85 to 140 miles of the center. The eye was centered near 11.1 north longitude and 130.9 east latitude, about 640 nautical miles (736 miles/1,185 km) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Hagupit was moving to the west-northwest at 12 knots 13.8 mph/22.2 kph).
Warnings in Effect
Philippines warnings in effect as of Dec. 4 include: Public storm warning signal #2 for the following provinces: Visayas: Northern and eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte and southern Leyte
Mindanao: Dinagat Island and Siargao Island. And public storm warning signal #1 in effect for the following provinces: Visayas: Northern Cebu including Bantayan island, Camotes island and Bohol; Mindanao: Surigao del Norte & Sur, Camiguin Island and Agusan del Norte; Luzon: Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Ticao Island and Masbate.
Current Forecast Track from the JTWC
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) current forecast track for Super Typhoon Hagupit projects the eye of the typhoon just over the northeastern tip of Eastern Visayas on Dec. 6 before making landfall over the Bicol region on Dec. 7. The storm is forecast to continue tracking in a northwesterly direction thereafter.
Maximum sustained winds at the time of approach to Eastern Visayas are expected be at Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, although the interaction with land is expected to continue weakening the storm.
The JTWC forecast calls for Hagupit to remain at typhoon strength as it crosses the Philippines and moves into the South China Sea.
Question in the Forecast Track
As of Dec. 4, not all computer models agree on the exact track the storm will take because of an area of low pressure forecast to move in from the north. Some computer models project that the low pressure system will be strong and would take Hagupit on a more westerly direction over the Central Philippines. Other computer models are projecting that the low pressure area to the north of Hagupit will not be so strong, which will allow the storm to maintain movement in a northwesterly direction.
As satellites gather more information, computer models will update atmospheric conditions that will steer the storm and forecasters will reassess the track as Hagupit nears the Philippines over the next couple of days.
Dec. 3, 2014 - NASA Tracks Intensifying Typhoon Hagupit
The International Space Station-RapidScat instrument monitors ocean winds to provide essential measurements used in weather predictions, including hurricanes. "RapidScat measures wind speed and direction over the ocean surface and captured an image of Hagupit when it was a tropical storm on Dec 2 at 8:50 a.m. GMT," said Doug Tyler of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. "The growing storm, north of New Guinea and headed for the Philippines, already had 25 meters/second winds (50 knots/57.5 mph/92.6 kph)."
A typhoon and tropical storm warning are in effect in Micronesia, in addition to a typhoon watch as Hagupit marches through Micronesia on a west-northwesterly track. A typhoon warning is in effect for Yap and Ngulu in Yap state, and a typhoon watch and tropical storm warning is in effect for Kayangel in the Republic of Palau. In addition, a tropical storm warning is in effect for Koror in the Republic of Palau.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Typhoon Hagupit on Dec. 3 at 04:30 UTC (Dec. 2 at 11:30 p.m. EST) as it moved through Micronesia in the western Pacific Ocean. The image showed a concentration of strong thunderstorms around the center with bands of thunderstorms spiraling into it.
At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) on Dec. 3, Typhoon Hagupit's maximum sustained winds had increased to 100 knots 115.1 mph/185.2 kph). Typhoon-strength winds extend 30 nautical miles (34.5 miles/55.5 km) out from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 120 nautical miles (138 miles/222 km).
The typhoon was centered near 8.7 north longitude and 138.3 east latitude, just 91 nautical miles (104.7 miles/168.5 km) west-southwest of the island of Yap. The typhoon is kicking up very rough seas with wave heights to 34 feet (10.3 meters). It was moving to the west-northwest at 18 knots (20.7 mph/33.4 kph) and is expected to continue in that general direction.
Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expect that Hagupit will continue to move west-northwest through Micronesia while intensifying to a Category four typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale peaking at 130 knots (149.6 mph/240 kph) over the next two days before it starts to weaken. The JTWC forecast calls for the typhoon to turn to the northwest and stay to the east of the Philippines.
For more information about Rapidscat, visit: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/iss-rapidscat/
Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible picture of Typhoon Hagupit in the western North Pacific Ocean on December 2, when several warnings were in effect for islands in Micronesia.
Micronesia warnings include a Typhoon Warning for Woleai, Yap and Ngulu in Yap state, a Typhoon Watch posted for Faraulep, Fais and Ulithi in Yap state, and a Tropical Storm Warning for Faraulep in Yap state.
When NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Hagupit on Dec. 2 at 03:45 UTC (Dec. 1 at 10:45 p.m. EST) the MODIS instrument took a visible picture of the storm that showed it had become much better organized over the previous day. Powerful, high thunderstorms circled the center while bands of thunderstorms spiral in from the west, south and north.
At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) on Dec. 2, Hagupit had become a Category One typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with maximum sustained winds near 70 knots (80.5 mph/129.6 kph). Hagupit was centered near 6.2 north longitude and 142.7 east latitude, about 463 nautical miles (532.8 miles/857.5 km) south of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. It was moving to the west at 17 knots (19.5 mph/31.8 kph) and generating high seas with waves up to 25 feet (7.6 meters).
Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast Hagupit to continue moving west-northwest through Micronesia and to intensify to 130 knots before weakening. The forecast track takes the center of Hagupit between Palau and Yap on Dec. 3 and toward the Philippines thereafter.
Weakening is not expected to begin until Dec. 6 so Hagupit is expected to maintain typhoon status through December 7.
Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
Dec. 01, 2014 -NASA's Terra Satellite Catches Fast-Developing Tropical Storm Hagupit
Tropical Storm Hagupit was just a low pressure area on Nov. 30, but warm waters and good atmospheric conditions allowed the storm to develop rapidly. By Dec. 1 the low pressure area strengthened into a tropical storm when NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiometer known as the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Storm Hagupit in the western Pacific Ocean on Dec. 1 at 00:05 UTC (7:05 p.m. EST, Nov. 30). The picture showed a concentration of strong thunderstorms around the center of circulation and fragmented bands of thunderstorms spiraling into the center from the western quadrant.
Hagupit developed from low pressure area System 95W. On Nov. 30, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) was monitoring System 95W when it was a couple of hundred miles south of the island of Chuuk. Chuuk is an island and one of the four states of the Federated States of Micronesia, located in the western North Pacific Ocean.
By Dec. 1 at 0900 UTC (4 a.m. EST), the low pressure area had been designated as a tropical depression and was renamed Tropical Depression 22W. Six hours later, the storm had quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Hagupit as maximum sustained winds strengthened near 40 knots (46 mph/73 kph). At that time Hagupit was centered about 140 nautical miles south-southwest of Chuuk and was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 knots (17.2 mph/27.7 kph).
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that animated infrared satellite imagery on Dec. 1 confirmed the low-level circulation center was consolidating and fragmented bands of thunderstorms were wrapping into the low-level center. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data on the storm on Dec. 1 at 02:59 UTC (Nov. 30 at 9:59 p.m. EST). The AIRS data showed strong thunderstorms with cloud top temperatures exceeding -63F/-53C around the center, which indicated the storms were high in the troposphere and capable of generating heavy rainfall.
The forecast from JTWC calls for slow intensification of the tropical storm over the next day. Thereafter, the storm is expected to intensify rapidly because of improved upper-level atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures. The JTWC is forecasting Hagupit as a typhoon as its center passes just to the north of the island of Yap on Dec. 3 while continuing to move in a west-northwesterly direction.
There are several warnings and watches now in effect for Tropical Storm Hagupit. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Satawal in Yap state. A typhoon watch is in effect in Faraulep, Woleai, Fais and Ulithi in Yap state, and a tropical storm watch is in force in Puluwat in Chuuk state.
Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
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